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The New Zealand dollar is expected to decline by approximately 6% in the coming months due to a slowing economy, leading investors to anticipate significant interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Recently, the currency hit a one-year low against the dollar as traders reacted to the central bank's pessimistic economic outlook and potential tariff impacts under the Trump administration. The swaps market is currently pricing in a 50-basis-point cut this week, with a slight possibility of a 75-basis-point reduction.
Elisabeth Baume-Schneider successfully advanced a major healthcare reform, achieving 53.3% approval, while facing challenges in pension policy, where her proposals were largely blocked by a conservative majority. Despite winning key healthcare votes, rising costs and a need for further reforms loom, particularly in the AHV system, which requires new funding sources by 2026.
Trump's incoming administration is marked by hawkish appointments, yet there are signs of a more accommodating approach towards China, influenced by business interests. Despite ambitions to broker peace globally, challenges such as escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Israel's military actions complicate his peacemaking goals. The evolving international landscape may hinder Trump's ability to leverage negotiations effectively, raising questions about his capacity to fulfill his promises of ending wars and making significant deals.
America's national debt has reached $36 trillion, equating to $107,000 per person, and is projected to increase rapidly. Donald Trump's potential return to the White House may lead to significant tax cuts, with estimates suggesting his policies could add $4.1 trillion to borrowing over the next decade. In the last fiscal year, federal spending exceeded tax revenue by $1.8 trillion, representing 6.4% of GDP.
Gold prices have surged past Rs 80,000 per 10 grams in major Indian cities, rebounding from the impact of Donald Trump's anticipated high tariff trade policy and a strong US dollar. Geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainty in the US economy are driving demand for the safe-haven asset, despite headwinds from the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and market volatility. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold prices previously fell to Rs 73,000 per 10 grams following Trump's election, reflecting concerns over potential trade restrictions.
After a volatile start to the week, commodity markets closed higher as traders responded to geopolitical risks and economic data. The US economy showed resilience with a Composite PMI of 55.3, while the Eurozone's slipped to 48.1, leading to a decline in the euro. Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials have left markets uncertain about potential rate cuts in December.
Stubborn inflation is expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious approach. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise by 0.3% in October, marking a 2.8% increase year-over-year, the largest since April. Additionally, resilient household spending and steady income growth are anticipated, with consumer outlays forecasted to climb 0.4% and personal income rising 0.3% for the second consecutive month.
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's decisive victory in Maharashtra and Haryana is expected to stabilize investor confidence and stimulate infrastructure development, according to analysts at MOFSL Research. With over 120 seats secured, the BJP's strong performance alleviates concerns about fiscal direction and market stability following the central election results in June. This outcome is anticipated to reinvigorate market dynamics and support capital expenditure initiatives.
At COP29 in Baku, nations reached a $300 billion annual climate finance target by 2035, but many developing countries deemed it insufficient. The summit was overshadowed by Donald Trump's election, which dampened U.S. contributions, and concerns over rising emissions and extreme weather persisted. Additionally, discussions on climate-related trade barriers and the influence of fossil fuel interests highlighted ongoing challenges in global climate negotiations.
Man Group and abrdn Plc remain optimistic about China's stock market despite concerns over Donald Trump's return and potential tariff threats. They anticipate that increased stimulus from Beijing will focus on boosting consumption in 2025, creating investment opportunities even amid trade war pressures on export-reliant companies.
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